by Teklu Abate
During
the last two decades, Tigray has occupied the minds of Ethiopians. That
EPRDF’s (the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Party)
creator, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), is native to
Tigray explains all the discourses. Ordinary conversations, media
reports, and developments on the ground all seem to testify that Tigray
is being preferentially and positively treated in all fronts.
It
is known that TPLFities dominate Federal government offices including
the military and security apparatuses. It is public discourse that
people from Tigray take a significant number of scholarships being
offered by top western universities. Compared to the other regional
governments, Tigray presumably outachieves in nearly all economic
indicators and measures. In a way, Tigray is said to be the ‘pampered
child’ of the ruling party.
The question is: to what extent these
assertions hold water? That TPLFities have a grip on power is never
contentious. Elusive and less grounded was the argument related to
Tigray’s overall economic performance. How and to what extent the region
performs economically compared to other regions? This was never
answered authoritatively only until we happened to get a new empirical
study conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI).
The National Economy
In its January 2013 book entitled Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges,
the IFPRI provided “…empirical evidence to shed light on the
complexities of agricultural and food policy in today’s Ethiopia,
highlight major policies and interventions of the past decade, and
provide insights into building resilience to natural disasters and food
crises”
According to the IFPRI, the editors of the book, Paul
Dorosh and Shahidur Rashid “tell the story of Ethiopia’s political,
economic, and agricultural transformation”. The overall conclusion of
the book is that Ethiopia is seeing better economic performances and
that the agriculture development-led strategy is “sound”. “In fact,
since 2001 the per capita income in certain rural areas has risen by
more than 50 percent, and crop yields and availability have also
increased. Higher investments in roads and mobile phone technology have
led to improved infrastructure and thereby greater access to markets,
commodities, services, and information” (IFPRI website).
It is
interesting that Ethiopia is making developments in several key areas.
This must be duly acknowledged and commended. Praising good beginnings
and criticizing malfunctions should be the business of any reasonable
and responsible citizen. There is no doubt that infrastructure is
developed and productivity is improved. What is unfortunate is that the
high cost of living (with double-digit inflation) is neutralizing the
changes brought about. Although per capita income increases, purchasing
power alarmingly deteriorates, putting households in a near perfect
gain-loss scenario. Of course, the degree of income distribution at
household and regional levels is also not even. The government and its
sympathizers and the opposition should not exclusively focus on the
amount of national income and rate of inflation, respectively. Both need
to be considered for a meaningful characterization of our national
economy.
Tigray Economy
The most important
part of the book that caught the attention of media is, however, the one
related to the comparative economic performance of Tigray. Compared to
other regional governments, Tigray is performing pretty better in nearly
all indicators and measures including access to and utilization of
fertilizer, irrigation, technology, infrastructure, and crop production.
The difference between Tigray, Amhara, Oromoia, and Southern Ethiopia
is, according to the IFPRI ubiquitous and substantial.
The
important question to ask is not why Tigray grows faster and stronger
but how it does that. Meaning, given common macro-economic policy, how
does Tigray outperform other regional governments in infrastructure
development and crop production? It is well known that the weather and
topography in Tigray are not any better conducive for crop production-
we have there many arid, rocky and mountainous areas. In fact, one finds
hectares and hectares of arable and fertile land in the other regions.
It is difficult to argue that the labor force in Tigray is much more
skilled and productive compared to in those other regions. The only
significant factor that should explain at least much of the variation
must be related to the degree of investment made. Tigray must have
enjoyed the highest resource pool over the last yesteryears. And this
seems in direct parlance with the popular cry that the region is the
ruling party’s favorite stop for its economic train.
This is hard
to refute. Some members of the top TPLF leadership have been talking to
what extent Tigray is progressing. The most recent account is one which
came from Azeb Mesfin. She eloquently talked of Meles’ vision and plan
to turn Tigray into a truly industrial zone in just few years. The
opposition and other people interpreted this as a mere political
maneuvering made to create tensions between the Tigray people and the
other Ethiopians. To me, her talks just talked of the truth.
Generally,
the fact that Tigray is found to be the most ‘prosperous’ region in
Ethiopia has serious ramifications. Seen from compassionate and moral
grounds, it is good to see that part of the country to make
improvements, for it ‘hosted’ several wars that involved Ethiopians and
foreigners. Citizens from all parts of Ethiopia participated in heroic
wars but Tigray, in addition to its soldiers, suffered a lot in terms of
infrastructural damage and environmental and psychological realms. If
all the investments took into consideration this reality of Tigray, it
sounds justifiable. However, it would have been more edifying and
blameless had it been done in absolute clarity, transparency and based
on national consensus.
Implications
That
Tigray is economically leading the other regions means a lot. The
IFPRI’s finding could be used by all interested stakeholders as a solid
base of evidence in support of the structural inequality persisting in
the country. The difference between Tigray and the other regions is as
psychological and moral as it is economical. Meaning, it is morally
wrong to grow one region faster than others. The difference could also
stimulate and sustain psychological uneasiness between Tigryans and
other Ethiopians. The already worrisome psychological climate might get
intensified. Moreover, Ethiopians might have hard time discriminating
between the ruling party and ordinary Tigryans. To the many, TPLF might
mean Tigryans and Tigryans might mean TPLF. This hitherto
hard-to-refute-and-accept perception might now look grounded. This
situation in turn might force innocent Tigryans to identify with TPLF.
That in the end means a protracted and undifferentiated struggle between
TPLF/Tigryans and the rest of Ethiopians and would unnecessarily
complicate matters. All these psycho-moral tensions might be considered
barriers for future peace and cooperation between Ethiopians.
What to do
Empirical
studies naturally appear credible and authentic. The comparative study
reported by the IFPRI is likely to be considered a yardstick to measure
how regions in Ethiopia perform economically. All stakeholders must see
the case seriously to avoid any unnecessary complications. The
government, the opposition, the media, Tigryans and the entire Ethiopian
population must face the reality. The government must accept the
reality and demonstrate its readiness to treat all regions fairly in the
future. Bluffing and/or getting rough on this issue would not do any
good. The educated, regardless of their political affiliations, would be
influential in creating a common platform for all Ethiopians based on
the reality on the ground. Workshops, seminars, conferences and/or
publications that involve and consider the government, the opposition,
Tigryans, and all other people are crucial.
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