Ethiopia needs to engage Egyptian authorities

This week Ethiopian government disclosed that a tributary to Abbay river (Blue Nile, which is part of the longest river in the world) is diverted (apparently only by about 0.2 km or 200 meters) for the ongoing construction of $ 4.7 billion worth of dam. The news renewed speculation on the prospect of peace /war between Egypt and Ethiopia.

 

The issue is given extensive media coverage in Egypt and elsewhere. The Washington Post reported that diplomats from Egypt and Ethiopia do not see conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia coming.  There is optimism on both sides that the project will not affect Egypt’s share of, based on previous agreements, the water.  However, The Egyptian Gazette  indicated that the assurance that the Egyptian president got, during his recent visit to Addis for the Africa Union 50^th celebrations, from Hailemariam Desalegne is verbal.

Experts’ opinion expressed on the side of Egypt seem to have a different take on the issue and they think the project is sure to affect the water flow to Egypt. Some even went to the extent of condemning Ethiopia: “…It remains irresponsible for Ethiopia to build Africa’s biggest hydropower project, on its most contentious river, with no public access to critical information about the dam’s impacts…” (cited in WP)

More aggressive comment from people like Sheikh Abdel-Akher Hammad of Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya suggests the possibility of war. It seems that the understanding on the part of Al-Gammaa Al-Islamiya is that the recent diversion of the tributary river is “a declaration of war on Egypt,” according to Ahram online.

While there seem to be unanimity among opinion leaders and experts in Egypt that the dam will affect the water quota of Egypt, the most moderate intended plan of action for some is, apparently, to push the government of Egypt to commit Ethiopia to sign another agreement to uphold previously agreed upon water quotas and even for the government Ethiopia to undertake the construction of the dam “under the supervision of Egyptian experts…” which is outrageous, to say the least.  In unrelated (?) turn of events, Egyptian firms seem to seek further business ground in Ethiopia – and that in gold mining. Probably it is a strategic move to strike another business deal from the reckless TPLF leadership and it is likely that Centamin, the mining company, might get it its way.

Strong opinion within Egypt regarding Nile appear to point to one direction: what looks like common understanding between Egyptian diplomats and their Ethiopian counterparts, and even the common understanding between president Morsi and Hailemariam Desalegne could be misleading. Probably, Morsi didn’t mean it when he said that the diversion and the construction does not affect Egypt’s share of the water and if he did, he is likely to change his position due to pressure from opinion leaders and other influential entities in the Egyptian society.

The controversial dam construction project emerged out of the blue in the middle of Tahrir revolution and for many it appeared that it was not meant to divert a river, rather as a distraction to rising political temperature in Ethiopia following the “Arab spring.” It may be so or maybe not. But, no question that people in Ethiopia did not have prior knowledge of the project before it was unveiled.

What is clear is that had Egypt not been in a situation of internal chaos, the response to mysterious dam project would have been different. The Thahrir revolution is followed by power struggle which is culminated by the victory of Muslim Brotherhoods. In fact, the outcome was determined in a legitimate election process.

After victory, Morsi’s supporters rallied for “all power to Morsi” (“all power to the soviets” in the Great October Russian Revolution comes to mine) which caused another tension within Egypt.

The problem in Syria is apparently dividing the world. Despite previous difference, European Union (The US will likely join it) resolved to lift what it termed us arms ban on the rebels. On the other hand, the Syrian government announced that it is receiving missile from Russia. Hezbolla is committed to help the Syrian government. Israel is has its own feud with Syria. So the region is evolving into a major war causing situation. In light of that and its internal problem, Egypt might not be in a position to take an aggressive move against Ethiopia. But that does not mean, Egypt will not have a desire to at some point.

If the 4.7 million worth dam construction is to cause an even more expensive war –both in terms of finance and human lives- there relevance of the project fades into darkness, which is totally undesirable. More worrisome is that if a conflict over this project erupts it will not be limited to “water war” and may spill over other areas and involve other societies and countries. That is not desirable too.

No question Ethiopia should get its fair share of water from its own river. Yet, Ethiopia should pursue its interest cautiously. Ethiopia does not have to enter to war with Egypt. Ethiopia does not have to enter into other forms of appeasement deals that harms the interest of Ethiopia in the long term too.

Had there been intensive public discussion before the ruling TPLF party unilaterally unveils the dam project as a means to divert political tension, probably it would have been possible to come up with a more useful, less controversial and much cheaper project. Now, it is late. So the Ethiopian government should engage the authorities in Egypt and build confidence that Ethiopia will not be using (it should not of course) more than its share of the water. The “development” effort on the part of Ethiopia should not, by any means, turn out to be war. If it happens, it will not be like any other wars. It will drain Ethiopia’s resources and creates another layer of long term problem.