June 13, 2013by Seyoum Teshome Akele
The Nile case has again
started becoming hot among riparian nations, particularly Egypt and
Ethiopia, and somehow Sudan, too. This is not the first time we
(Ethiopians) happened to witness this kind of superfluous confrontation
as well as naïve ownership claim, especially by Egypt, not fully
understanding yet the nature and complexity of River Nile, like any
other shared international rivers. The first being some 8 or so years
back.
And the second was again in 2009/10 when most of the upstream
countries, including Ethiopia, signed the Cooperative Framework
Agreement (CFA) towards creating a more equitable share (and ownership)
in using and managing the Nile waters even if it had been really dragged
as Egypt kept using different techniques to its deferment.
Here I
will focus on some important contributing factors/aspects, including
legal perspectives, but setting aside what Egyptian politicians and
their water resource “experts” started multiplying, i.e., the use of
“power” and “legal” means, in maintaining Egypt’s dominant share of the
Nile waters. Also, I’ll see the relationship between Egypt and Ethiopia,
and how it has affected the water use for over centuries. And lastly, I
will highlight possible ways of addressing the problem
of sharing the Nile River, from a scientific perspective, not just
among the key stakeholders, in this case Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, but
among other co-riparian states too. Because, the River is by its nature
the longest and covers as many countries as 10 with an estimated total
population of 300 million.
First, Egypt has been until recently
succeeding in influencing any water use and development projects in
Ethiopia with the help of its influencing power through its
well-established links (with donor nations) as well as overly
representation or presence in the international institutions such as the
World Bank, IMF and the UN. Whereas, Ethiopia has been poorly
represented internationally, especially in lending institutions, water
institutions, seminars and conferences where stakeholders’ views are
shared and taken into account
while designing water guiding policies, principles, frameworks and
agreements with regard to the allocation of resources (mainly financial
and technical) despite the fact that Ethiopia is the major water
contributor to its transboundary rivers–particularly Nile towards which
it contributes as much water as 86 percent. Of course this poor
representation within the most influential global actors such as the
World Bank and the UN is not unique to Ethiopia, but to other poor
countries in Africa and Asia, proving how injustice and greed rule the
world!
Second, Egypt has also managed to clinging over the colonial treaties (1929) which gave
Egypt not only in exploiting the largest possible Nile water share
ever, but it also gave her the right to veto over any upstream water
projects. Accordingly, Egypt has been a hydro-hegemonic state capable of
dominating the river basin as a whole.
Third, Ethiopia’s
continued civil war and seemingly never-ending internal problem coupled
with conflicts in the horn that Egypt has always been involved (be it
direct or indirect one, as it was proved in their recent live
transmission as if we did not know them yet) gave Egypt the upper hand
in sustaining monopolistic use of Nile. Up until now, it is probably in
Ethiopia where there are a number of insurgents and strong opposition
due to the undemocratic and oppressive nature of the government in
power. And here, in my view, the ruling party, more appropriately
Woyane, takes the full responsibility. That is why as big a national
issue as “Yehidasew Gidib”, where every citizen should have a greater
stake on, has been totally politicized and subjected to criticism!
Who
would trust a government that betrayed the people and the
country—making us landlocked while fighting a senseless war with our
brothers and sisters in Eritrea, ceding a great deal of land to Sudan,
killing Agnuanks, systematic killing and massive displacement of ethnic
Amharas, jailing and harassing ethnic Ormos, Journalists, Opposition
members, Activists, etc. Because if we were more stable and democratic,
then we would have avoided the loopholes that foreign enemies, such as
Egypt, have been able to take advantage of. Even the dam itself has
become one of the most controversial issue simply because the government
is unrepresentative and least accountable. Otherwise, I stand on my
ground that no one will ever dare to oppose any development—especially
on Blue Nile (Abay) that we Ethiopians have grown with a great sense of
anger and madness for not being able to use it to feed ourselves while
others in the downstream have managed to build their economy, and even
gone as far as making it appear to be part of their own historical
identity.
Nevertheless, thanks to the change in the geo-politics
of the horn (including the independence of the Southern Sudan, here
partly thanks to the Dergue regime) as well as presence of alternative
sources of funding (China), now there is a clear indicator that the
power has already been shifting from the downstream (Egypt) to upstream
countries. That is why perhaps Egyptian sounded like arrogant and
uninformed decision makers who came out mad and frustrated (I know it is
their turn!), through their own media, and tell the world that they are
terrorist who would like to bomb another sovereign country’s dam or
anything they believe is good to cause a destruction. The funny part
Egypt thinks Nile is all about Egypt, and sometimes about Ethiopia and
Egypt. But, the fact is, it is all about at least the 160,000,000 people
who live within the entire basin or 300,000,000 (in the long term)
people in the basin countries (Burundi, the DRC, Egypt, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda)–who
would eventually need to use their fair share of the Nile for their
socio-economic development. Because, in reality, no one would like to
charity his only left money and go hungry while awaiting the alms of
others. That would of course be too heavenly, which we happened to have
been doing that for Egyptians until now, but not anymore! You Egyptians
are too avaricious!
After all, who are the Egyptians to tell us
that we should sit and live on less than a dollar a day while they are
enjoying with a per capita GNP of at least 1300 USD! Who are they to do
whatever they would like in the downstream (including the 1959 quota
agreement with Sudan, excluding Ethiopia and the rest basin countries)
yet they object any upstream water use which was even signed by the
majority of the riparian states in 2010? They also claim that they have
got a legal right, which doesn’t existing at all given none of these
countries ratified it. Yes there are guiding principles on how to share
transboundary rivers, but not as such a golden rules that one needs to
strictly abide by. If there were, the Egyptians would have been again
the ones to lose as they violate those principles. In fact the UN
Convention that Egypt itself did not sign, and so did Ethiopia, reads as
follows:
“The 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses is the only treaty
governing shared freshwater resources that is of universal
applicability. It is a framework convention, in the sense that it
provides a framework of principles and rules that may be applied and
adjusted to suit the characteristics of particular international
watercourses. Some key guiding principles set out in the document
include: the equitable and reasonable utilization of international
watercourses; the application of appropriate measures to prevent harm to
other States sharing an international watercourse; and the principle of
prior notification of planned measures. For the Convention to become
legally binding, at least 35 nations must ratify it.”
There is no
country on planet Earth that lets its water flow untouched for the sake
of people down the stream. I must quote what a US hydrologist who did so
much field work on Blue Nile (Abay) has said, “it makes no sense at all
that America has to use up all its water sources, leaving almost
nothing to flow down to Mexico, and on the other hand Ethiopian farmers
have to go hungry while the richest and longest river flows in their
neighborhood only to nourish lives in Egypt.’’ Who are Egyptians to tell
us that water development such as hydroelectric dam will reduce their
water flow and hence we should revert to the erratic rainfall while they
have done nothing to conserve and reduce waste from the water that is
already out there in their forsaken dams and agricultural fields?
According
to Food and Agricultural Organization(FAO), Egypt is actually having 20
billion cubic meter water sources (such as underground, rain water,
waste, reuse of agricultural drainage, etc.) besides to the 55.5 billion
cubic meter which was allocated in its 1959 agreement with Sudan. And
out of these, much is used for agriculture (the most water consuming)
activities. Yet, they want to oppose a dam which is believed to be a
very efficient and effective way of regulating the water itself as it
reduces siltation apart from its being very less prone to evaporation,
unlike to what is the case in Cairo (Aswan Dam).
Now it is time
for Egypt to recognize the shift in power, and hence benefit from
cooperation than trying their terrorist style of destabilizing Ethiopia
(including causing bloodshade between Muslim and Christian Ethiopians
who have a long history of peaceful coexistence–the Agaro slaughtering
of priests and kids while they were in church service in 2007/8 is a
case in point). War has never been and will never be an option to
dealing with a shared water resource, but COOPERATION. Because it is
practically impossible for Egypt to concur Ethiopia (which is the only
way, though never a viable option, to control Blue Nile-Abay in
Ethiopia, so to speak). Of course, according to researches, no country
has fought a war over water, other than Israeli that did occupy
Palestine for the sake of Water. Even if it happens to be initiated,
perhaps for political purpose, from both sides, definitely the loser is
going to be Egypt.
I did not mean in terms of casualties (which would
cost us so much, because we have been in war almost since our very
existence—and every Ethiopian has that sense of nationalistic bravery
and independence in his/her blood. But that helped countries like Egypt
benefit at least in the short run, even being under the rule of their
slave masters.)
Lastly, I would like to recap here (as I, too,
believe are the right ways) the suggestions made by a Conflict and Peace
Research Professor, Ashok Swian, who also studied Nile for long, should
Egypt and Sudan (which is already interestingly cooperating with out
wanting Egypt to decide on her behalf, which has become another head
ache to Egyptians) in order to have a more sustainable and equitable use
of Nile. These are:
- Supporting and working on a more comprehensive strategy, through Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), for mutual benefit sharing,
- Agreeing on water storage in the Ethiopian highlands, not in Egypt(!) where there is so, much waste and evaporation, and use of hydropower generation
- Developing new Agricultural areas in Sudan,
- Egypt genuinely cooperating with hydro projects in Ethiopia such as providing financial and technological resources,
- Making desalination an economically viable process, using scientific approaches,
- Working on and making NBI a lasting cooperative institution,
- Making a high level political commitment (not for the sake of politics, but for the sake of water that actually doesn’t follow any political or administrative boundary),
- Looking beyond the water itself—finding different ways the basin countries can engage and do business amongst themselves, etc.
There
are numerous promising examples where cooperation is considered a way
forward for countries that share rivers (international/transboundary)
almost everywhere. Therefore, Egypt is and should be no
different—Ethiopia, for that matter, has not been asking any fees in
return to the water and fertile soil that Egypt has been enjoying at no
cost, like what is the case between the neighboring Lesotho and South
Africa! So, Egypt, please choose a “win-win” approach, dropping your “I
win, Ethiopia lose” approach. Otherwise, Ethiopia, along with the
cooperating basin states, will win and you will lose in the end.
Actually, Egypt has already lost since it failed to co-own the dam while
appreciating and signing a more balanced and just CFA. So, my advice
would still be to behave like the water, avoiding boundaries and working
together towards a sustainable use and management of the river that is
facing an increasing pressure from all riparian states. Because, after
all, no one would like to share you if you are not in peace with! And
most importantly, Egypt can only oversee the possible challenges only if
there is a mutual understanding as well as trust to interact with
Ethiopia.
In all honesty, to me, Egypt’s worry should be not now,
but say 20 years from now when the population is expected to increase
drastically in Ethiopia alone, not to mention the climate change and
other important factors, when then Ethiopia will be forced to exploit
its available water resources fully so as to remain self-sufficient.
That should be a greater concern for Egypt and think about possible ways
of cooperating best to minimize such and other challenges ahead.
Who in
Egypt thought Ethiopia would come such a long way and start using the
Blue Nile, despite the internal problems, including the Tana Beles
(Multi-purpose!) Hydro Electric Power Plant? None, it has all come at a
much surprise to the Egypt-concentric politicians. So, they have got to
deal with it carefully or else they will LOSE the battle in the long
run. Because none has fought and won in an over night, even Israeli–it
took some time! Same applies for Ethiopia, we might not have been able
to challenge you in the past, but we will any time we think is
appropriate. So, relax and face the reality on the ground.
Nile River: This picture was taken by myself in Khartoum, Sudan, in 2007 while on a trip!
To
conclude, I will use the caption that I wrote for the above picture
back then,saying “realizing Ethiopia’s full access, use and control over
Nile (Blue) Water- reverting the existing and historical rights that
the downstream states have been opting to cling- is one of the greatest
changes, if not the primary, in Ethiopia that I would like to see in my
life time.”
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